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☆ Dollar gains before inflation data, bitcoin slips
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar rose against the euro and yen on Tuesday as traders awaited inflation data on Thursday for clues on when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates. But Fed expectations are likely to continue to drive dollar moves. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. If the data confirms that inflation is continuing to moderate it could boost expectations for a March rate cut, though if it comes in above expectations it could also reverse some of that pricing. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.33% at 102.55.

Persons: Bipan Rai, Kamal Sharma, steepening, Sharma Organizations: Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, Fed, U.S, Bank of Japan, Investment Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Asia, Bitcoin

OTTAWA, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, avoiding a recession but showing growth stumbling ahead of next week's interest-rate decision. The economy avoided slipping into a technical recession - defined as two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions - because second-quarter GDP data was revised up to a 1.4% gain from an initial report of a 0.2% decline, Statistics Canada said. The BoC has remained on the sidelines since July after lifting its benchmark interest rate to a 22-year high of 5% to tame inflation. "The bottom line is that the economy is still sputtering along," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Real GDP most likely edged up 0.2% in October after a 0.1% gain in September, Statscan said.

Persons: Doug Porter, Royce Mendes, Bipan Rai, Statscan, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Divya Rajagopal, Fergal Smith, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada's, Statistics, BMO Capital Markets, Canadian, U.S ., BoC, Desjardins Group, Bank of Canada, Bank, CIBC Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Statistics Canada, North America, Ottawa, Toronto

[1/2] A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday hastened market expectations for how soon the Federal Reserve will cut rates. Such a move would weaken a major dollar support and could come as early as next year's first quarter. The yen - punished broadly this year by dollar strength - broke the 150 mark for the first time in nearly two weeks, gaining 0.69% to 149.68 to the dollar. Japanese authorities do not have specific exchange-rate levels in mind when deciding when to intervene in the currency market, Deputy Finance Minister Ryosei Akazawa told parliament on Friday.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Bipan Rai, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Ryosei Akazawa, Lee Hardman, Robert Holzmann, Joachim Nagel, Christine Lagarde, Herbert Lash, Iain Withers, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook, Alexander Smith, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, FX, Eurostat, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, North America, Toronto, United States, Macquarie, New York, Britain, London, Singapore

[1/2] A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday reset market expectations for how soon the Federal Reserve will cut rates and weighed on the dollar. The greenback is poised for its biggest weekly drop since July, down 1.6% over the past five days, and second-biggest decline this year. Data that showed U.S. single-family homebuilding increased marginally in October briefly supported the dollar, but with inflation the main market driver it remained lower on the day. The euro was up 0.17% at $1.0868 after Eurostat data confirmed year-on-year inflation in the euro zone slowed sharply in October.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Bipan Rai, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Lee Hardman, Robert Holzmann, Joachim Nagel, Christine Lagarde, Herbert Lash, Iain Withers, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook, Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, FX, Eurostat, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, North America, Toronto, United States, Macquarie, New York, Britain, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar rebounds, Fed officials take center stage
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Comments from other Fed officials will also be evaluated for signs on whether they expect further rate increases. “Next week’s CPI print is going to be the best adjudicator we have on whether or not the Fed needs to hike rates again,” said Rai. The dollar index was last up 0.13% on the day at 105.19 after earlier dropping to 104.84, the weakest since Sept. 20. The yen hit 151.74 per dollar last week, edging close to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention by the Bank of Japan. The Australian dollar fell 0.34% to $0.6491, after earlier reaching a three-month high of $.6523.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, ”, Bipan Rai, Lisa Cook, “, Rai, Dane Cekov, Cekov, Karen Brettell, Samuel Indyk, Jonathan Oatis, Aurora Ellis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal, CIBC Capital Markets, Market Committee, Fed, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, London

☆ Dollar dips on growing bets Fed rate hikes are over
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Comments from other Fed officials will also be evaluated for signs on whether they expect further rate increases. “Next week’s CPI print is going to be the best adjudicator we have on whether or not the Fed needs to hike rates again,” said Rai. The dollar index was last down 0.03% on the day at 105.02 and got as low as 104.84, the weakest since Sept. 20. Cekov said the yen likely needs to be around the 155 per dollar area for Japanese authorities to consider intervention or to talk the currency up. The yen hit 151.74 per dollar last week, edging close to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention by the Bank of Japan.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, ”, Bipan Rai, “, Rai, Dane Cekov, Cekov, Sterling, Karen Brettell, Samuel Indyk, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal, CIBC Capital Markets, Market Committee, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, London

☆ Dollar gains after US consumer prices rise more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The dollar rose sharply on Thursday after U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in September, lifted by an elevated cost of rent that raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high for some time. The consumer price index increased 0.4% last month, with a 0.6% jump in the cost of shelter accounting for more than half of the rise. The dollar rose more than 1% against sterling, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Owners' equivalent rent, a measure of the amount homeowners would pay to rent or would earn from renting their property, rose even though non-official sources show a decline in rental prices. Thursday's CPI release came after Wednesday's mixed report on U.S. producer prices, and minutes from the Fed's September meeting.

Persons: Douglas Porter, Bipan Rai, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, BoE, Wednesday's, Herbert Lash, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Emelia Sithole, Mark Potter, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, New, CIBC Capital Markets, Fed, Bank of England, CPI, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Oakville, Canada, New Zealand, North America, Toronto, New York, London, Bengaluru, Singapore

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "It's the feeling that the U.S. economy can stomach higher interest rates for a little bit longer," said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "Implicitly it also means that the Fed might not be so quick to cut rates next year either," he said. The Japanese yen weakened 0.31% versus the greenback at 149.77, after falling to 149.90. Investors have been closely watching for signs of intervention in the Japanese currency by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

Persons: Florence Lo, Kevin McCarthy, Bipan Rai, Edward Moya, Michelle Bowman, Shunichi Suzuki, Chuck Mikolajczak, Marguerita Choy, Alison Williams Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management, Congress, Democratic, Republican, Treasury, CIBC Capital Markets, Investors, Bank of Japan, Fed, Bank of Japan's, Japan's Finance, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, Toronto, New York

☆ Dollar drops on jobs data, yen rises from 10-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Japanese yen also gained, after earlier falling to a 10-month low. The dollar briefly reached an almost 10-month high against the Japanese yen earlier on Tuesday, before dropping on the jobs data. The Bank of Japan remains an outlier among global central banks with its loose monetary policy, even as it slowly shifts away from yield curve control. “It is moving away from excessively loose monetary policy, but it’s doing so at a very slow and measured pace,” Rai said. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Bipan Rai, ” Rai, “ It’s, Charu, Kazuo Ueda, Lee Hardman, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Action Economics, Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Saxo, Jackson, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Japan, London

☆ Dollar’s decline throws spotlight on battered commodity currencies
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While that's driven rallies in risk assets such as stocks, raw materials prices and some commodity currencies have been slower to respond. Reuters GraphicsThe bullish view on commodity currencies gained traction in recent days after leaders in China - the world’s leading commodity consumer - on Monday pledged to step up policy support for the economy. Prices for oil, copper and other raw materials rose on the news, while commodity currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars edged up. Some other commodity currencies have seen similar declines, with the New Zealand dollar down 2% and the South African rand down 3%. Commodity currencies are far from the only way to play further dollar weakness.

Persons: there's, Francesco Pesole, Brent, Thanos Bardas, Neuberger Berman, Bardas, Bipan Rai, Jane Foley, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Reserve, ING Bank, Australian, Reuters, New, U.S, New Zealand, Deutsche Bank, International Monetary Fund, Bank of Japan, U.S ., CIBC, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Norway, Australia, U.S, Norwegian, China, North America, Sweden

☆ Dollar bounces from 15-month low on strong core U.S. retail sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose from a 15-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after core retail sales saw strong gains in June, as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Headline U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in June, with a 0.2% increase during the month. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.6% in June. Data for May was revised slightly up to show core retail sales increasing 0.3% instead of the previously reported 0.2%. The dollar rose 0.10% against the Japanese yen to 138.83, after dropping to 137.245 on Friday, the lowest since May 17.

Persons: ”, Bipan Rai, ” Rai, Klaas Knot, Samuel Indyk, Sharon Singleton, William Maclean Organizations: YORK, U.S, Headline U.S, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, Norwegian krone, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Thomson Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Britain, Japan, Norwegian, London

☆ Dollar edges up against yen as investors wait on inflation data, Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for May and the Fed’s interest rate decision next week, while the Canadian dollar jumped after the Bank of Canada hiked rates. (USCPI=ECI)"We expect a fair degree of consolidation ahead of the Fed decision next week," said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "That CPI number’s going to be critical for the Fed decision as well. Traders have also priced out most expectations that the Fed will cut rates this year as inflation remains above target. Australia's central bank chief on Wednesday stepped up a warning of more rate hikes ahead to temper rising price pressures.

Persons: Bipan Rai, Jane Foley, they’ll, Lou Brien, Amanda Cooper, Sharon Singleton, Emelia, Nick Macfie Organizations: YORK, Canadian, Bank of Canada, CIBC Capital Markets, Traders, Rabobank, U.S, Fed, ECB, Reserve Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, North American, Toronto, Canada, Australia, Chicago, Reserve Bank of Australia, London

☆ Dollar bears bide their time as US economic strength persists
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Fund managers in the latest BofA Global Research survey named shorting the dollar as the market's third "most crowded" trade. The dollar is "in a very messy transition from bull market to a bear market," said Aaron Hurd, senior portfolio manager, currency, at State Street Global Advisors. Hurd expects the dollar to remain buoyant over the very short term, but decline steadily over the next few years. Most investors believe the dollar will likely remain elevated until U.S. data turns decidedly weaker, allowing the Fed to cut rates. "The dollar strength is entirely related to the fact that U.S. data is actually pretty good," said Alvise Marino, a strategist at Credit Suisse.

Persons: Aaron Hurd, Hurd, Alvise Marino, Bipan Rai, Christine Lagarde, Brian Rose, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Futures Trading Commission, Fund, Research, Street Global Advisors, Bears, Federal Reserve, Fed, Traders, Credit Suisse, Reuters, U.S . Treasury, CIBC, UBS Global Wealth Management, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, Europe

TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, lifted by rising Treasury yields, though the pound gained against the greenback after British inflation stayed above 10% in March and put more pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising rates. "We still think that over the medium- to long-term that the dollar is going to continue to come under considerable amounts of pressure. Wednesday data showed British consumer price inflation eased less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%, meaning Britain has western Europe's highest rate of consumer inflation. Deutsche Bank on Wednesday revised up expectations for British rates to include two more 25 basis point rate hikes from the Bank of England. Currency bid prices at 2:42PM (1842 GMT)Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar dips, Powell testimony and jobs data in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index has bounced off a nine-month low of 100.80 reached on Feb. 1 as strong data and still-high inflation leads investors to reprice for higher rates for longer. Data on Monday showed that new orders for U.S.-manufactured goods fell in January, pulled down by a plunge in civilian aircraft bookings. Powell’s testimony will be watched for any new signals on whether the U.S. central bank could reaccelerate the pace of rate hikes in response to the recent data. The Chinese yuan and Aussie dollar fell after China on Sunday set a lower-than-expected target for economic growth this year of around 5%. The dollar gained 0.15% to 136.02 yen ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday.

☆ Canadian dollar to rebound in 2023 if economic uncertainty clears
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie will edge 0.6% higher to 1.35 per U.S. dollar, or 74.07 U.S. cents, in three months, according to the median forecast of currency analysts. The Bank of Canada, along with the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks, has raised interest rates at a rapid pace to tackle soaring inflation. Another potential tailwind for the loonie would be the end of the U.S. dollar's in global currency markets since 2021. A "weaker dollar story" could emerge if the Fed moves to end quantitative tightening (QT), said Bipan Rai, global head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. QT is a process central banks use to shrink the size of their balance sheets.

☆ Dollar slides, CPI data suggests Fed could slow pace of rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Inflation is clearly moving in the right direction, and that keeps a more hawkish Fed at bay," he said. The spike higher in the yen versus the dollar stirred speculation the Bank of Japan intervened, which analysts doubted. Fed funds futures priced in a drop in expectations for the U.S. central bank's peak target rate, which fell below 5%. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate hike by the Fed instead of a 75-basis-point increase in December rose to 71.5%. CPI rose 7.7% in October on a year-over-year basis, down from 8.2% in the prior month, as headline inflation fell below 8% for the first time since February.

☆ Dollar on track for biggest plunge since 2015 as investors exit crowded positions
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The scope of the dollar's moves against many currencies on Thursday has been breathtaking, as investors pull back from what has been seen as an extremely crowded trade in foreign exchange markets. Against a basket of currencies , the dollar was off about 1.9%, on pace for its worst day in nearly seven years. The reversal of these trades could fuel further dollar weakness, analysts said, if further signs of economic softening lead investors to bet on a less hawkish Fed. Daniel Wood, portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at William Blair, has increased bets on emerging market currencies rising against the dollar.

☆ Euro, sterling bounce, dollar drops as investors cash in
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Hannah Lang | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, pound and Chinese 100 yuan banknotes are seen in this picture illustration, January 21, 2016. REUTERS/Jason Lee/IllustrationWASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Euro and sterling rose against the safe-haven dollar on Monday, supported by a risk-on sentiment across markets as investors digested positive euro zone data and looked to cash in on the strength of the U.S. currency. The euro was up 0.69% to $1.0029, its highest level since Oct. 27, while sterling was last trading at $1.1534, up 1.40% on the day. Investors were also cheered by a readout on Monday showing that German industrial production grew in September, beating analyst expectations. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index fell 0.91% to 110.070.

☆ Canadian dollar forecasts cut as BoC trails Fed on peak-rate bets - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The currency has weakened over 7% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2022. It was then expected to rally to 1.31 in a year, versus 1.30 expected in last month's poll. "That implied spread between terminal rates in Canada and the United States will probably have to widen out further and that could take the U.S. dollar higher across the board including against the Canadian dollar." Investors are betting on a terminal rate, or peak level for interest rates, from the BoC in the coming months of 4.25%. "We see less interest in investing money back into the ground in the oil patch when oil prices are high and so there's less room (for the currency) to fall when oil prices are low."

British Pound Sterling and U.S. Dollar notes are seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. Deutsche Bank's Currency Volatility Index – the historical volatility index of the major G7 currencies - jumped to a two-and-a-half year high of 13.55 on Monday. While Sterling and the yen have fared extremely poorly against the dollar, the greenback's meteoric rise has spared no major currency. Reuters GraphicsMoves have surprised long-time currency traders and investors. "Our team is working around the clock from multiple global locations," said Kamboj, adding he is not trading sterling because the pound's direction now depends entirely on how the Bank of England reacts.

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